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Why is Hillary Neglecting Delegate-Rich Dallas County?

Continued from page 1

Published on February 21, 2008

Molberg can envision a scenario in which a candidate wins the popular vote but loses the delegate count. Clinton could win the primary vote by carrying the state's rural and border areas, but Obama could still win the delegate count if he carries delegate-rich Senate districts in Dallas, Houston and Austin. North Texas has 26 delegates, six in Senate District 23 alone. No district along the border has more than 4 delegates.

But none of this ensures an Obama win, not with 102 delegates still up for grabs. Thirty-five of these are super-delegates—among them, state party leaders and the Texas Democratic congressional delegation. They are pledged to no one and are free to vote their consciences—a vote that ostensibly is intended to reflect the will of the people but can bring old political loyalties (read Clinton) into play. The remaining 67 are determined through a lengthy, caucus-driven process, which begins at precinct conventions 15 minutes after the polls close and ends at the state Democratic Convention in June.

But preliminary maneuvers for these 67 slots actually begin at local honky-tonks such as Gilley's, where on February 13 more than 520 volunteers signed pledge cards committing them to vote for Obama twice on Election Day—once at the polls and once at their precinct conventions.

"A big part of your ground game is making damn sure you get your people back to the polls after they close," Molberg explains. "If you get 10 of your people to a precinct convention and the other side shows up with 50, you're screwed."

Local party headquarters has been deluged with calls from Democrats asking how to become delegates. "I don't get as many calls from Clinton people because those are your old-line activists, and they know exactly what to do," Ewing says. "The majority of calls are from Obama people because they are new to the process."

At Gilley's, Molberg was surprised by the number of faces he did not recognize. "I haven't seen this much enthusiasm from new people since 1972." Of course, that was the year that gave the Democrats George McGovern.

Molberg noticed some "old heads" also working the crowd. Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk put in only a cameo appearance, but he has been stumping for Obama around the country and has become the surrogate-in-chief for Obama's Texas campaign. "This is more of a movement than it is a well-orchestrated machine," Kirk says. "Dallas County should be hotly contested by both candidates, particularly because of how well we did in the November ['06] elections."

Although local black leaders are largely breaking for Obama, Nealy considered it something of a coup when she and Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price, a Clinton supporter, convinced the Democratic Progressive Voters League, the oldest black political organization in Texas, to endorse both Clinton and Obama.

The Hispanic leadership seems deeply split along generational lines. Many older, more established Hispanic congressmen and legislators have thrown their support behind Clinton, whose reservoir of goodwill flows from her husband's presidency and before, when she was a young organizer working South Texas for the McGovern campaign.

But Dallas state Representative Rafael Anchia counts himself among those young Hispanic leaders who are helping Obama erode Clinton's base. He believes that issues such as the war and immigration will energize new Hispanic voters and drive them into the Obama camp. "The opportunity for Obama in the city of Dallas is huge," he said. "Fifty percent of the [registered] Latinos here have registered since 2000, and that is a byproduct of young Latinos aging and foreign-born immigrants becoming naturalized citizens. These groups may not have as intense and intimate a connection with the Clintons as other Latinos."

Because the primary is generating so much heat and interest (10,000 people registered for a lottery to attend the televised Clinton-Obama debate in Austin on February 24, though only 100 tickets were available) experts are predicting a record turnout. SMU political scientist Cal Jillson says he believes the ethnic breakdown of the Democratic vote will be 27 percent black, 35 percent Anglo, 35 percent Hispanic and 3 percent Asian. "I have seen estimates as high as 50 percent for the Hispanic vote, but I don't think it will break 40 percent."

Jillson says there are just as many Hispanics in North Texas as there are along the border, which is why he is convinced that Clinton will fight for them. "Obama has a much thicker ground organization," he says. "But unless Clinton runs out of money, I would be absolutely stunned if she didn't contest North Texas."

It's Feb 18, and you wonder if there has been a shift in the ground war in the five days since your last Web search for campaign events. You return to mybarackobama.com, click on the appropriate tabs, same 75232 ZIP code, same 10-mile radius. You find 22 events. You click onto hillaryclinton.com, go through the same machinations and you wait for the results: one event.

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