Could Dallas-Fort Worth Become America's Next Top Metropolis? One Report Says So

Does it feel like things are getting a little crowded? It may not be your imagination or an unconfirmed fear that the world is somehow shrinking.

A new report conducted by the moving website moveBuddha predicts that based on current trends, Dallas-Fort Worth could become the nation's new population leader.

The report estimates that DFW's population could be as high as 33.9 million by the year 2100, making it the largest metropolis in the country and ahead of estimates for other Texas cities including Houston and Austin and even massive metropolitan areas like New York, Atlanta and Los Angeles.

"Dallas may not be the fastest-growing big city in America but by 2100, we project it could be the nation's largest," says the moveBuddha study. "The Dallas metropolitan area is already ranked No. 4 by population nationally in 2021. If its current growth rate continues, it will climb to No. 1 by 2100 and boast nearly 34 million residents."

The report is based on data taken from the U.S. Census Bureau that compared the 10-year growth rates of metropolitan areas with more than 250,000 residents between 2010 and 2020. The latest census data shows that DFW's current population stands around 7.6 million, up from 6.4 million a decade ago.

The numbers seem to be borne out by similar studies. Another recent study conducted by the Site Selection Group suggests that growth is exploding across several states in the Sun Belt. Many of the metro areas in those states, including Texas, are some of the fastest-growing in the nation. Eight of the top 10 growth markets in the nation are located in Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee. The study projects a growth rate of 8.64 percent over the next 10 years, the fifth-highest in the nation.

North Texas tops the list of the state's fastest-growing areas, according to U.S. Census data collected between July 2021 and July 2022. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area saw a population change of 2.1 percent in just a year, the highest increase of any U.S. metro area. That figure contrasts with the previous year when the city of Dallas alone lost almost 15,000 citizens, possibly due to the rising cost of housing and rent.

Even past trends seem to confirm DFW's rapid growth. In 2018, the U.S. Census reported an estimated population increase of 146,000 in just a year

"Historically, the Dallas metro area attracts large numbers from both international and domestic migration," says Census Bureau demographer Molly Cromwell in a released statement. "Many of the other largest metro areas in the country rely mostly on international migration and natural increase for growth."

The data isn't being noticed only by census data analyzers. Last year, Freakonomics Radio took note of DFW's bewildering growth and dedicated a two-part series to the subject. Producer Ryan Kelley said the cost of living is a major factor for the growth trend, but the explanation also includes accessibility to entertainment, shopping and other cultural elements that make some areas more appealing.

"I think for people who are considering moving to a new place and certainly moving to a place like Dallas, that we think of cultural hubs with Broadway in New York and the movie industry in Los Angeles," Kelley said. "People want to see those types of facilities and have access to that type of stuff [...] but corporate thinking of expanding and opening new offices, they know employees want those things and are asking if they have those things: 'Is this a vibrant and exciting place?'"