In a tweet over the weekend, the El Paso Democrat shared a news segment that declared the gubernatorial race is “pretty much tied.” A poll conducted by the public policy-focused nonprofit Texas Lyceum found that 42% of voters plan to back the incumbent while 40% will go for O’Rourke. (Another 18% say they don’t know who they’ll vote for, haven’t thought about the race enough or plan to cast their ballot for someone else.)
“Thanks to you, this race is ‘well within the margin of error,’” O’Rourke said, quoting a newscaster from Austin’s KVUE. “Pitch in a few bucks to help us reach more Texans and keep the momentum going.”
Democrats likely view the news as a boon for O’Rourke’s campaign, but some political observers believe the polling was flawed from the jump.Thanks to you, this race is “well within the margin of error.”
— Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) April 4, 2022
Pitch in a few bucks to help us reach more Texans and keep the momentum going. https://t.co/aH1uedvWVV
Jason Vaughn, president of the Houston Young Republicans, didn’t mince words when it comes to examining the results. “This poll is a joke, and it’s absolutely insane to think that this race is at all that close,” he said.
Vaughn pointed to the fact that nearly a quarter of Lyceum's participants (23%) said they were not registered to vote in Texas. Largely because of that, Vaughn isn’t sure how reliable its findings are to begin with and described the poll as a “clear outlier.”
“I love a good poll. I trust good polls,” he said. “This is not a good poll.”
He also compared the poll to skewed surveys from ahead of the GOP primary election, which Abbott handily won. Still, before election, one poll showed conservative challenger Allen West garnering around 35% to Abbott’s 33%. Another showed Don Huffines gaining nearly 50% to the incumbent’s 16.6%."Their poll implies that the Democratic brand is thriving — and in Texas in particular — when it’s struggling so bad nationwide.” – Colin Strother, Democratic strategist
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When considering O’Rourke’s chances, it’s important to keep in mind President Joe Biden’s anemic approval and the country’s sky-high gas prices and inflation, said Democratic strategist Colin Strother. Democrats aren't polling well in general, and Abbott has remained relatively unscathed by scandal or major controversy.All of these polls have the same energy. @GregAbbott_TX is about to wipe the floor with O’Rourke. The only thing @BetoORourke is winning is the trifecta loser crown of irrelevance. #txlege pic.twitter.com/cc7wtq56Dm
— Jason Vaughn (@JasonVaughn) April 4, 2022
The Lyceum poll depicts Biden’s approval rating in Texas at a higher percentage (43%) than he currently has nationwide (42%, per Gallup), which Strother sees as suspect. And around one in five of those polled indicated they aren’t interested in politics or public affairs, meaning they also aren’t all that likely to vote in a gubernatorial race.
On top of other factors, the Lyceum poll was likely conducted too far out in advance to hold water come November, he added: “Their poll implies that the Democratic brand is thriving — and in Texas in particular — when it’s struggling so bad nationwide.”
Chris Macaulay, an assistant professor of political science at West Texas A&M University, also highlighted the fact that the poll is centered on registered voters, not likely ones. Traditionally speaking, during times when unpopular Democrats are in power, likely voter polls will skew in favor of the GOP because conservatives are more motivated to hit the ballot box.
But despite the poll’s problems, Macauley said, such registered voter surveys show the race is more competitive than the incumbent might like. It’ll keep Abbott sweating and campaigning at the same time it puts O’Rourke within striking distance.
In 2018, O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of succeeding in his race to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. But Macaulay notes that it was during a midterm election with then-President Donald Trump in office, whose controversial politicking spurred liberal turnout.
Now, with a relatively unpopular Democrat in the White House, O’Rourke is facing a steeper hill to climb. “Beto’s going to have to, through the force of his personality and animus against Abbott, create a Texas-specific blue wave, which seems not impossible, but pretty tough,” Macaulay said. “I don’t know if he can pull it off.
“If it was 2018 again, I would be a little bit more excited if I were Beto,” he continued. “In 2022, though? It’ s a little bit of a tougher sell.”
