Honestly, when you realize it's finally September and the sweltering gates of hell will (hopefully) close soon, keeping the heat of August behind them, it makes for a pretty great month. But the changing of the calendar also means that our long, national non-football-having nightmare is finally over. The NFL is back!
it's been nearly eight months since the Dallas Cowboys decided to walk into public without their pants on and proceed to get pulverized like raw meat on a chef’s table by a quarterback with very little experience... Oh, well. It's finally time to move on and wade into the murky Cowboys waters of 2024.
As frustrating as the last 28 years have been as a Cowboys fan – Super Bowl XXX on January 28, 1996, was the last time the Cowboys won a title, for any who need reminding – it is time to take advice that may seem outdated now, but was a mere nine years old the last time Dallas achieved glory. It’s a mantra that feels very real in 2024 as we continue to hope, and even believe, as a Cowboys fan.
The great '80s hair metal band Whitesnake knew our pain, our path, before we ever knew what was coming.
"Here I go again on my own," the classic rock radio staple goes. "Going down the only road I’ve ever known."
All I’ve ever known my entire life is cheering, screaming maniacally, directing profanities at the TV in September, still believing that this could be the year. Followed by January, if we were lucky, and being disappointed that the 'Boys once again vomited all over themselves in the playoffs. Without fail, each winter, I walk the lonely Dallas "street of dreams," as David Coverdale might sing today.
As I've grown older, I’ve gone from blind faith to a more realistic sort of fandom. Such is especially the case since we spend many radio segments throughout this time of the year on my 1310 The Ticket show discussing every game and talking to as many people inside and close to The Star as possible. It’s frustrating, I get it.
I have friends who have bailed on this team over the years, but I do not believe in that. I am a Cowboys fan no matter what. I also work in the media and do my best to provide informed opinions based on facts about the team that I happen to love. It's a weird dichotomy between the fan in me (“This is our year, we can win the Super Bowl!”) and the sports talk host in me (“What do I see that truly leads me to believe something that hasn’t happened in 28 years realistically has a chance of happening or am I being a delusional fan and this team is actually trash?”).
The truth, as usual, is somewhere in the middle.
The Cowboys have gone 12-5 for three straight seasons and have just one playoff win to show for it. It’s a colossal failure to grasp opportunity. One of the biggest concerns I have about this team continuing that level of regular-season success is the amount of “Ifs” that permeate this roster. Major questions, or "ifs" in this case, do not instill confidence. There are too many variables in play, and even if the team hits on half of them, there are still many questions left with unsatisfactory answers. But, hey, if these ifs as listed below pan out, maybe we're onto something. Let’s look at exactly what I’m talking about here.
If the running back by committee works
Dallas will employ a very interesting group of running backs with Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Dalvin Cook. I wrote about this issue in depth last month here in the Observer, as this is a massive area of concern. Within this if are multiple other ones, sub-ifs, if you will: If Zeke Elliott can stop his annual yards per carry decline, which hit a career low 3.5 last year, that would be swell. If Rico Dowdle, going into his fifth season, can show more than the occasional flash and be more consistent with what will likely be an increased workload, we'll take that. If Deuce Vaughn can do in the NFL what he did at Kansas State, despite not doing it in his rookie year and appearing in only seven games, that would be greatly appreciated. And if Dalvin Cook isn’t completely done a year after having just 67 carries in 15 games and averaging a horrible 3.2 yards per carry, then that is something we'll gladly accept.If another receiving weapon can step up to complement CeeDee Lamb
Right now, opposing defenses will look to bracket the All-Pro Lamb and try to eliminate him as much as possible. Brandin Cooks will be 31 by the end of this month, and he’s coming off a career-low average of three catches for 41 yards per game last year. Jalen Tolbert is going into his third year and has only 24 total catches. KaVonte Turpin is a fun gadget to have but his real value is in the return game, as he has just 13 career NFL catches. Jalen Brooks was a seventh-round pick in 2023 who caught six passes last year. Ryan Flournoy was a sixth-round pick this year and is likely to be inactive or play only on special teams. Regardless, one of these will need to step up in order to truly set CeeDee free. This is an “if” that has a lot of potential to be a positive outcome, but it's a question without an answer right now.If Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe are as good as they’re hyped up to be
Will the rookies struggle much with the steep NFL learning curve? Hopefully not. They will be the starting left tackle and center, respectively. They both looked great in camp and in the preseason. Guyton looks like he might be a plug-and-play sort and continue the stellar lineage of recently departed Tyron Smith, but it’s only year one. Will his rookie-ness show in big moments that cost the Cowboys when he can’t handle stud pass rushers like Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa? Who knows. Again, it’s a big if.If Calen Carson looks like a fifth-round pick until DaRon Bland is back
We'll go ahead and add a sub-if here too. If Trevon Diggs takes a few weeks to get back to form coming off surgery for his torn ACL. The receivers the Cowboys face early in the season can more than take advantage of average play. Will Carson and Diggs be ready from the outset to offer above-average cornerback play? The challenges will come early and often in the form of Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Chris Olave, Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers, Amon-Ra St. Brown and, well, you get the idea.If Mazi Smith isn’t just a bust.
Think about that for a second. Smith is a big piece of what the Cowboys are relying on up-front defensively, a guy they spent the 26th overall pick on in 2023. The team has such a lack of confidence in him they went out and got two (yes, two!) defensive tackles to jump in if Smith can’t get it done. To be fair, Linval Joseph and Jordan Phillips are two high-quality veterans who at least know what they’re supposed to do and where they need to be, so maybe this is an if that's easy to fix if it becomes a problem.If there are no injuries
This is perhaps the biggest if for any NFL squad. Outside of Diggs, the Cowboys were relatively healthy last year. What happens if Lamb has to miss a couple games for a minor injury? What about if Zack Martin misses games again, leaving the two aforementioned rookies up front? If Jake Ferguson, second on the team in targets a year ago, misses time, what's the plan at tight end? The Cowboys' lack of any offseason activity to bring proven depth onto the roster will be seriously tested at times this season as the normal wear and tear for different players pops up.If the last two years of drafts don’t produce at the level needed
The Cowboys have seven rookies on the roster, and four of them (Guyton, Beebe, Carson, and linebacker Marist Liufau) are starting. They also have 10 second-year players on the 53-man roster, many of whom will be called upon to provide high-quality depth throughout the season.If we're being honest, there are a lot of positive things with this team as well. Dak Prescott was runner-up in the MVP voting last year and is a Top-10 quarterback in the league. Lamb, even if he is the only known dangerous weapon in the receiving room, is a Top-3 wide receiver. Micah Parsons is one of the two or three absolute best defensive players in the NFL, and Diggs just two years ago led the NFL in interceptions.
I think Liufau and young DeMarvion Overshown will grow into two damn-good linebackers for this team. I think it, but I just don’t know it yet.
Some of these ifs will go the wrong direction and cause problems. Others will yield positive answers, and in January we’ll probably laugh at how stupid I was for thinking it was a question mark to begin with. But on paper this roster is not as good as the one in 2023 was. It's simply impossible to believe that right now. But, recall that there was a big if about the fit of Tyler Smith going into last season, and now he's one of the best young guards in the NFL. Not all ifs turn out bad.
I believe this is a team that can find its way to 10 wins and a fourth straight double-digit win season. They should be in the playoffs with another opportunity to let us all down all over again. Or, and the fan in me is writing this now, maybe they won't let us down and a deep playoff run finally happens?!
Damn. Whitesnake really nailed Cowboys fandom, though.
“And though I keep looking for an answer, I never seem to find what I’m looking for. Oh, Lord, I pray you give me the strength to carry on. Because I know what it means. To walk along this lonely street of dreams.”
Here’s to dreaming in 2024 my friends! See you at the Super Bowl, baby!
