New Dallas Fall Forecast Released: What to Expect This Year

Hey, North Texans, who’s ready for more heat and less rain as we make our way into the fall?

Anyone there? Anyone?

Unfortunately for those of us who are more tired talking about the heat than living in it, it seems as though some sadistic, bizarro world version of the groundhog seeing his fiery shadow has taken hold. According to new seasonal temperature outlooks released by the National Weather Service, the Dallas-Fort Worth area is expected to experience hotter-than-normal temperatures throughout September, October and November.

You might need to order your pumpkin spiced lattes iced instead of hot.

To be exact, the NWS suggests North Texas runs a 40–50% chance of above normal temperatures as 2024 sears to a close. It might be of little consolation, but the southern part of our state has an even greater probability of seeing higher-than-normal temps in the fall. In fact, we’re not alone when it comes to the chances of increased heat across the country in the coming months.

“Above-normal temperatures are favored across a majority of the contiguous U.S.,” the NWS Climate Prediction Center report states.


If we’re all being honest with one another here, we know darn well that none of us here in Texas can break out the box of sweaters in September. The average temperature in Dallas in September is 89 degrees. But thanks to reports such as this, we can’t even dare to dream that a slight chill awaits us just after Labor Day, can we?

Even if sweltering Septembers are the norm around here, it doesn't mean we have to like it. Although this summer hasn't been the hottest one ever around here, it's been close enough. August has really kicked up the heat a notch, so it's fair for us to look for cool glimmers of hope where we can.

And while we run our ACs on full-blast until Thanksgiving, we’ll also be doing the same to our sprinklers, too, apparently. The NWS seasonal precipitation outlook suggests that depending on where you live in North Texas, you can expect a 33% to 50% chance of below-normal rainfall in September, October and November.

Unlike the temperature outlook, Texas is one of the areas not in alignment with much of the rest of the country, which is predicted to welcome more rain than normal or the usual expected amount.


“The [September, October, November] 2024 precipitation outlook depicts elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation along the East Coast, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and western Alaska,” the NWS report notes. “Below-normal precipitation is favored for the Central to Southern Great Plains, Central Rockies, Southwest, southern California, and southern Alaska.”

But take heart, dear reader. At least we’re almost done with August. Right?